02859nas a2200193   4500008004100000020001400041245013900055210006900194260000800263300001400271490000700285520212200292653002802414100002502442700002202467700002302489700001902512856013402531       2010                        eng d  a0021-890100aClimate change and range expansion of an aggressive bark beetle: evidence of higher beetle reproduction in naive host tree populations0 aClimate change and range expansion of an aggressive bark beetle   cOct  a1036-10430 v473 a1. Hosts may evolve defences that make them less susceptible and suitable to herbivores impacting their fitness. Due to climate change-driven range expansion, herbivores are encountering naive host populations with increasing frequency. 2. Aggressive bark beetles are among the most important agents of disturbance in coniferous forest ecosystems. The presence of bark beetle outbreaks in areas with a historically unsuitable climate, in part a consequence of climate change, provided an opportunity to assess the hypothesis that the mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae has higher reproductive success in lodgepole pine Pinus contorta trees growing in areas that have not previously experienced frequent outbreaks. 3. We felled and sampled mountain pine beetle-killed trees from historically climatically suitable and unsuitable areas, i.e. areas with and without a historical probability of frequent outbreaks. Reproductive success was determined from a total of 166 trees from 14 stands. 4. Brood productivity was significantly affected by climatic suitability class, such that mean brood production per female increased as historical climatic suitability decreased. 5. Synthesis and applications. The current study demonstrates that the mountain pine beetle has higher reproductive success in areas where its host trees have not experienced frequent beetle epidemics, which includes much of the current outbreak area in north central British Columbia. This increased productivity of mountain pine beetle is likely to have been a key reason for the rapid population buildup that resulted in unprecedented host tree mortality over huge areas in western Canada. The outbreak thus provides an example of how climate change-driven range expansion of native forest insects can have potentially disastrous consequences. Since an increased reproductive success is likely to accelerate the progression of outbreaks, it is particularly critical to manage forests for the maintenance of a mosaic of species and age classes at the landscape level in areas where host tree populations are naive to eruptive herbivores.10aDendroctonus ponderosae1 aCudmore, Timothy, J.1 aBjorklund, Niklas1 aCarroll, Allan, L.1 aLindgren, B.S.  uhttps://weevil.myspecies.info/climate-change-and-range-expansion-aggressive-bark-beetle-evidence-higher-beetle-reproduction-naive02035nas a2200169   4500008004100000020001400041245016700055210006900222260000800291300001200299490000700311520134300318653002801661100002201689700001901711856013501730       2009                        eng d  a0045-506700aDiameter of lodgepole pine and mortality caused by the mountain pine beetle: factors that influence their relationship and applicability for susceptibility rating0 aDiameter of lodgepole pine and mortality caused by the mountain   cMay  a908-9160 v393 a<p>During outbreaks the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) kills large lodgepole pine trees (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) more frequently than smaller ones. There is, however, considerable variation in the relation of diameter to incidence of attack. In a meta- analysis of published data we found that the relationship was primarily determined by geographic location (elevation, latitude, and longitude). We propose a new tree mortality measure, the probability of death index, defined as the average percentage of mortality for trees &gt;23 cm. The index may improve the precision in predictive modeling of tree mortality, as it provides a biologically relevant measure of mortality, since it only includes trees that contribute to the growth of an epidemic and is not influenced by the number of trees within a diameter class. To be useful to forest managers, it must be possible to predict the index from stand parameters that are easily meas- ured. The usefulness of the index was supported by a meta- analysis, which showed that 53% of the variation in the mortal- ity index was explained by geographic location. Tree density did not explain any additional variation. Future research is needed to evaluate the performance of the probability of death index compared with that of other mortality measures.</p>
10aDendroctonus ponderosae1 aBjorklund, Niklas1 aLindgren, B.S.  uhttps://weevil.myspecies.info/diameter-lodgepole-pine-and-mortality-caused-mountain-pine-beetle-factors-influence-their-relationsh01512nas a2200193   4500008004100000020001400041245011000055210006900165260001500234300001200249490000800261520081000269653002801079100002201107700001901129700002101148700001701169856013201186       2009                        eng d  a0378-112700aCan predicted mountain pine beetle net production be used to improve stand prioritization for management?0 aCan predicted mountain pine beetle net production be used to imp  cJanuary 20  a233-2370 v2573 aStand-level planning of lodgepole pine management can benefit from the use of mountain pine beetle susceptibility-riskmodel analyses to assign treatment priority. Priority is currently assigned based solely on relative levels of expected volume loss in the event of a mountain pine beetle outbreak.We evaluated the possibility to predict the relative contribution of brood beetles, by infested stands, to the next beetle generation. Existing data were used to develop generalized parameters for inclusion in predictive models of stand-level mortality and brood production. Model output for independent stands achieved a highly significant relationship with measured outcomes of brood productivity, indicating that relative levels of brood production can be predicted and incorporated into decision-models.10aDendroctonus ponderosae1 aBjorklund, Niklas1 aLindgren, B.S.1 aShore, Terry, L.1 aCudmore, Tim  uhttps://weevil.myspecies.info/can-predicted-mountain-pine-beetle-net-production-be-used-improve-stand-prioritization-management